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Wed, 14th of May 2008

 
By fubar
May 14 2008 - 9:28am

Pssst. Pass it along.



 
By Swopa
May 13 2008 - 2:24pm



"Check, please...!"

(Via the Associated Press.)

 
By Swopa
May 12 2008 - 9:24am



The New York Times reported over the weekend from Baghdad:
The Iraqi government and leaders of the movement of the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr agreed Saturday to a truce, brokered with help from Iran, that would end more than a month of bloody fighting in the vast, crowded Sadr City section of Baghdad.

. . . The deal would allow the sides to pull back from what was becoming a messy and unpopular showdown in the months leading up to crucial provincial elections. It is not clear who won, how long it would take for the truce to take effect or how long it would hold. But at least for now it would end the warfare among Shiite factions.

. . . The decision to negotiate a cease-fire came as both parties appeared to realize that they were losing ground. Civilians in Sadr City blame both sides for their suffering.

The Iraqi government has done little to ease the crisis and allow medical and other aid to reach people. There has been almost no effort to repair the shattered neighborhood, where burned-out cars and piles of bricks from bomb-damaged houses are common sights..

For the Shiite militias, losses have been rising as well. They are suffering more casualties and are also being blamed for the deaths of some civilians, who frequently bear the brunt of the gun battles.
I'm inclined to reprise my analysis from the end of March, when a similar truce occurred in Basra:
For the Team (some-)Shiites government, you had the awful spectacle of intentionally inflicting carnage on one of your own major cities. . . . For the Sadrists, as proud as they may be of their defiant stand, it does them little good to be seen as wanting to draw the government (no matter how clumsy and corrupt it might be) into a civil war.
Although some canny analysts frequently cite the Sadr movement's grassroots support, this shouldn't be overestimated -- I don't believe ordinary Iraqis' support for Muqtada extends to violent resistance to keep senior Sadrists from being imprisoned, especially when that means volunteering their homes and families' lives for possible destruction.

That's the box Mookie is in... to maintain his popular political support, he needs to restrict himself to being a political actor. But if he does, the government (and the Americans) will use their official military leverage to whittle away at his ability to act politically.

As for the box the rest of Iraq is in, this plaintive Washington Post story today puts it well:
[Emad T.] Yousif enjoyed some personal prosperity and a whispered, furtive liberty under the Baathist regime [of Saddam Hussein], always striving to avoid any undue attention from the vast intelligence apparatus that helped keep Hussein in power. Balding, oval-faced, eyes slightly downcast, Yousif played the gray man well.

Five years into the U.S. effort to remake his country, Yousif, now 53, plays that role still. If the essence of freedom is the opportunity to assert oneself, Iraq has a long way to go. Now as then, Iraqis who want to survive shrink back into themselves, lie low, let attention find someone else.

. . . Material ostentation draws kidnappers, political engagement invites assassination, and time spent outside the seeming safety of four walls carries the risk of being caught in the middle of horrific violence.

. . . The chaotic aftermath of an invasion intended, in part, to promote democracy has convinced Yousif to stay as far away as possible from power: "We are people not involved in hot issues, which is politics or religion or whatever it is. We are normal, neutral people. I believe most of Iraq is like this. And we got experience from the old regime how we can manage ourselves."
The Post's reporter, who met Yousif in 2002, quotes him from a profile written at the time: "The only thing Iraqis can do, [Yousif] says, is wait. They have no influence over the US. They can't change their government themselves. 'We are like cockroaches feeding on sewage,' he says. 'We survive.'" The substitution of one inept-but-brutal regime for another, and the presence of an overextended occupying army, doesn't seem to have changed that underlying, sad reality.

 
By Swopa
May 10 2008 - 5:18pm

An even more-random-than-usual hodgepodge of links found while updating the Needlenose blogroll for the forthcoming WordPress version of the site:

-- Fafblog on the pieing of Thomas Friedman: "Fafblog would like to Officially Condemn this wanton and aggressive misuse of pie, almost as much as we'd like to Officially Condemn how much we enjoyed it."

-- Brian Beutler passes along a photo of a bar in Italy with (I hope) an unclear grasp on what the Ku Klux Klan is.

-- Via Chris Andersen, did you ever notice the "Garfield" comic strip's dark, Beckett-like undercurrents? Well, it helps if you remove Garfield:


-- The King of Zembla reports on the quiet evisceration of the GI Bill, underscoring an important GOP philosophical tenet: "Government programs that work must be watered down, undermined, or dismantled altogether, lest citizens draw the naive and dangerous conclusion that government programs can work."

-- Former Pennsylvania resident Dick Destiny on "codgers and uneducated for Clinton" ("Barack Obama had it right when he pegged small-town Pennsyltuckians. They just didn't like hearing it. They're poorer than the average, less educated, and they don't like those who tell them so in any form. Like many Americans, they can't take criticism."), as well as Obama Girl's racist hometown and "Republicrat barflies" ("white men who turn into Republicans the instant they find a candidate on the other side of the fence who seems like a strong and manly daddy-figure").

 
By Swopa
May 9 2008 - 1:15pm

An inadvertently revealing moment -- though revealing of what, I'm not sure -- from the Associated Press today:
Perhaps Barack Obama's competitive juices need new outlets now that he has expanded his lead over Democratic presidential rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.

On a five-hour flight from Washington to Oregon late Thursday, the Illinois senator came to the back of his charter plane for a spirited word game against reporters . . .

In "Taboo," a player under time constraints must prompt teammates to guess words or names without using obvious hints. For instance, in giving clues for "equator," the player is penalized if he says "Earth,""center" or "line."

. . . When Obama was giving clues, he ventured: "Thomas Jefferson called for it once in a while." Seeing the blank looks, he admitted, "that's too obscure." He then tried, "the Beatles did a song about it," and a teammate correctly answered, "Revolution."
I think it's safe to say that neither Dubya nor John McCain would have had the Thomas Jefferson quote be the first clue that popped into their heads.

 
By Swopa
May 8 2008 - 4:16pm



(Image via The Phoenix.)

On the same day that $100 million-plus heiress/candidate spouse Cindy McCain says, "How about never? Is never a good time for you?" with regard to when she'll release her tax returns, the Associated Press profiles the most fearsome financial powerhouse of the 2008 election:
Kriss Riggs isn't one to spend her money on politicians.

"Even the place you can donate a dollar on your taxes, I refuse to do it," says the 60-year-old photographer from Blue River, Ore.

Likewise for Kate Schwartz, a 24-year-old marketing expert from Chicago. Past elections, she says, always seemed far removed from young people.

"A lot of people felt like it wasn't happening in my demographic," Schwartz said.

Not this time.

Riggs and Schwartz are foot soldiers in Barack Obama's 1.5-million-strong army of campaign contributors. Dozens of Associated Press interviews with donors, and an AP financial analysis show how contributions that make only a soft ca-ching by themselves, arriving in increments of $10, $15 and $50, have collectively swelled into a financial roar that has helped propel Obama toward the Democratic president nomination.

Altogether, Obama's campaign has taken in an unprecedented $226 million, most of it contributed online. His donor base is larger than the one the Democratic National Committee had for the 2000 election.

These are hardly political fat cats. Ninety percent of his donors give $100 or less, and 41 percent have given $25 or less, according to the Obama campaign.
I think I like this contrast on the subject of public accountability -- or, to put it in less jargonesque language, knowing who you work for -- going into the fall campaign. Barack is likely to be the target of whining from the Double-Talk Express if he chooses to opt out of the general-election public financing restrictions, but all he has to do is point out that the purpose of that funding approach was to keep candidates from being compromised by their reliance on who's giving them money.

Then he can add, "If John McCain wants to accuse me of being beholden to the nearly 2 million Americans of all backgrounds who have donated money to my campaign, mostly in amounts ranging from 10 to 100 dollars, my answer is... yes! I'm indebted to them, and those are the people whose interests I'll serve as President."

Go for it, John... I dare you.

(Cross-posted at Firedoglake.)


 
By Swopa
May 7 2008 - 11:20am



(Barack Obama in Raleigh, NC yesterday, via Reuters.)

 
By Swopa
May 6 2008 - 11:23pm


Looks like she's waving goodbye...

In the wake of the primary election results in Indiana and North Carolina -- a barely discernible win in the former, and a substantial defeat in the latter -- Hillary Clinton has reportedly cancelled all public appearances tomorrow, and David Niewert writes at Firedoglake about her "victory" speech:
She vowed to keep fighting on. Florida and Michigan and all that.

But it sure sounded, and looked, and felt like a concession speech. The thank-yous. Bill crying (at least it looked like it from certain shots). The resigned tone. She certainly didn't sound like someone who was fighting any longer.
And, as Markos notes (and Greg Sargent documents), her post-results email to supporters doesn't include the usual explicit request for money.

That last item may be the clearest indicator that we won't have Clinton to kick around much longer. You may recall her well-publicized dip into her and Bill's private finances back in January, and it always made me wonder if part of her motivation for staying in the race was to recoup her "investment."

Seen in that light, the most damaging thing about the IN/NC returns isn't that she can't spin the media or superdelegates on a plausible path to the nomination; it's that she can't drum up the kind of fundraising spike her victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania brought. And so, having gotten back as close to even as she's going to get, now might be a good time to withdraw rather than go back to running on her own dime.

Update: Okay, so maybe she's been running on her own dime again for a while. And maybe she's not shutting down her campaign totally, and not withdrawing just yet. But at some point you've got to figure Chelsea will step in and tell her mom to stop spending her inheritance.

 
By greenboy
May 6 2008 - 5:41pm

Just to jab a stick in the beehive of the Hillary lovers unleashing their venom in comments against our mild Obama bias here on Needlenose - remember that Limbaugh Loves Hillary!


 
By Swopa
May 5 2008 - 8:12pm

One advantage of not posting much lately about the long-running Democratic nomination race is that I don't share the apparent hysteria its continuation has induced in other writers. Consider this freak-out headline from the most popular story on the Huffington Post today:
Clinton Camp Says It Will Use The Nuclear Option
Not surprisingly, the story itself is far less apocalyptic:
Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.

With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month -- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.

Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama forces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two other major hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in the Clinton camp, under specific circumstances:

First, this coming Tuesday, Clinton would have to win Indiana and lose North Carolina by a very small margin - or better yet, win the Tar Heel state. She would also have to demonstrate continued strength in the contests before May 31.

Second, and equally important, her argument that she is a better general election candidate than Obama -- that he has major weaknesses which have only been recently revealed -- would have to rapidly gain traction, not only within the media, where she has experienced some success, but within the broad activist ranks of the Democratic Party.

. . . the balance of power will be held by delegates appointed by DNC chair Howard Dean.

For the scenario to work, then, Dean would have to be convinced of Clinton's superior viability in the general election, and that she has a strong chance of defeating McCain next November.
This doesn't sound much like (as Markos put it today) trying to "to stage a coup against the will of the voters," or as the nuclear-option hyperbole implies, to "blow up" a process already moving inexorably away from her (as it has been the past few months). Rather, it's an attempt to be prepared if the party powers become convinced a coup is necessary -- if Obama is already visibly hemorrhaging support, Team Clinton has a tactical plan to help move the delegate totals in her favor.

As I wrote in a comment two months ago, "The purpose of her staying in... isn't to try to steal the nomination through a brokered convention. It's to hang around just in case those photos of Obama having sex with a goat become public -- i.e., some sort of scandal/meltdown that causes a genuine buyer's-remorse situation." I don't foresee a meltdown like that happening, but I also accept that this is the closest primary contest of my lifetime, so I don't begrudge Clinton her right to hang around just in case.

That said, I'm not a fan of some of the tactics Hillary & Co. have used in trying to stay afloat, but let's keep things in perspective. First, as anyone who's been watching the NBA playoffs (or the NCAA tournament earlier) knows, a team that's losing in the final minutes is going to take some seemingly unwise gambles -- committing fouls to prolong the game, etc. And as far as I can tell, nothing Team Clinton has launched at Obama has been as hard-hitting as this ad from last fall, which was by John Edwards against Hillary... and which, in fact, she never fully recovered from. (Howard Dean rightly commented that even Clinton's famous "3 A.M." ad pales in comparison with the treatment he got in 2003-04.)

So it's hard for me to buy the caricature of Clinton as a singularly vicious and ruthless candidate who will stop at nothing to win the nomination. If Obama's victory is as inevitable as his supporters claim -- and, in fact, I think it is -- then they should stop freaking out over the imagined schemes of an opponent they insist is irrelevant. Because as long as Barack stays focused on the ultimate goal and doesn't get rattled, Clinton will be irrelevant soon enough... and her last-ditch aggressiveness will have provided useful practice for the real fight to come.

 
By Swopa
May 3 2008 - 8:38pm



In a well-timed bit of piggybacking, the Brookings Institution has posted an article by Peter Singer on "the Pentagon’s Five Step Plan For Making Iron Man Real":
Overcoming our human body's weakness via technology is a vision into which the Pentagon is today investing literally billions of dollars. As former Air Force Chief of Staff General John Jumper describes, “We must give the individual soldier the same capabilities of stealth and standoff that fighter planes have. We must look at the soldier as the system.”

. . . The home for much of the work on the new technologies of the Future Force Warrior system is the Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies at MIT. The program was started in 2002, with a $50 million grant from the Army, the largest ever grant in MIT’s history. Among the consortium working with MIT on the soldier systems are traditional defense firms like Raytheon to unexpected players like DuPont, the plastics company, and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, a leading research hospital of cancer and women’s health issues.

. . . the Future Force Warrior will carry a new “Weapon Subsystem,” that crosses a machine gun with a missile launcher. Most likely using the Metal Storm electrical system, it will shoot either bullets or tiny 15 mm explosive rockets. The advantage of the rockets is that they not only will be able to blow things up, but also are planned to have sensors that guide themselves at any designated target, raising every soldier to the level of an expert marksman. The weapon will also shoot an “electro-dart” that instead of exploding, stuns an enemy with an electrical shock. [. . .]

. . . instead of just regular night vision goggles and a video camera mounted on the rifle, the soldiers will be able have the enhanced MANTIS (Multi-spectral Adaptive Networked Tactical Imaging System) sight. Inspired by research into how insects “see” the world, MANTIS is a system which fuses together all the various images that different sensors (such as infrared light, thermal, etc.) detect into one single image. . . . Each soldier’s helmet in the system is wirelessly linked to those of everyone else in their squad, "so that each person sees what every other person sees." The system also has “a TiVo-like record and playback capability” that allows the soldiers to rewind what they just saw and give anything that struck them as important an extra look.
All that is just the beginning, as Singer updates us on research into self-supporting armored exoskeletons, ways of manipulating body chemistry and metabolism ("steroids on steroids"), and their implications for future warfare.

Fortunately, the author leavens the gee-whiz tone of what all these innovations might accomplish with reminders of the likelihood of unanticipated consequences and complications -- and a rigorous pattern of linking each concept to the comic book or science-fiction novel where it originated (to the extent that copyright infringement is a significant concern of the military researchers -- in at least one case, they're being sued by angry authors.)

(Thanks to Abu Aardvark for the Brookings link.)